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2024-12-13 05:50:34

Ramsden, deputy governor of the Bank of England: The relatively calm market conditions this year may lead to greater risks in the future; In view of the increasing uncertainty of the future, we must continue to be vigilant; We should monitor and evaluate the risks in the UK financial market and make use of our balance sheet when appropriate.We hope to continue to establish constructive relations with Britain.Market News: Egypt condemns Israel's "further occupation of Syrian land" and believes that entering the buffer zone is an attempt to force a new reality on the ground.


Guoguang Chain: The wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest 260 million yuan to purchase assets. Guoguang Chain announced that the wholly-owned subsidiary Ganzhou Guoguang plans to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Ruijin City, Jiangxi Province. It is estimated that the total investment will not exceed 260 million yuan within 18 months, which will be mainly used to purchase the state-owned land use right owned by Ganzhou Shuofeng Real Estate Co., Ltd. and the projects under construction, civil decoration projects, equipment purchase, start-up expenses, laying liquidity and so on. Among them, it is planned to purchase the underlying assets in cash of 115 million yuan.German Finance Minister: The German government is optimistic that European fiscal rules will be properly implemented.COMEX silver rose by 3.00% in the day and is now quoted at $32.54 per ounce.


Jingxing Paper: The second phase of Malay project is expected to start in the first quarter of 2025. Jingxing Paper said in an institutional survey on December 9 that the capacity utilization rate of the company's packaging paper is relatively high, except for necessary maintenance and downtime, it is basically in the state of full-load operation, and the annual output this year is about 1.5 million tons. On the issue of the company's capital expenditure plan in the later period, Jingxing Paper said that the company's largest capital expenditure plan at present is the Malay Phase II project, which is expected to be officially launched in the first quarter of next year, with an estimated construction period of two years.Huaxi Securities Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December: The policy strength showed an upward trend. The Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that the release signal of this meeting was positive. Judging from the significant strength of Hong Kong stocks and A50 futures, the content of the meeting greatly exceeded previous market expectations. There are mainly the following aspects: First, the policy tone is more positive. "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment", which is used to describe countercyclical adjustment for the first time, reflects the upward trend of policy strength. The policy of this year's two sessions is expressed as "strengthening countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies", the Politburo meeting in July "strengthening countercyclical adjustment" and the Politburo meeting in September "strengthening countercyclical adjustment". From the point of view of change, it gradually turns to counter-cycle instead of cross-cycle, and the intensity is constantly upgrading. Create a follow-up policy for the market that may continue to be introduced until the economy stabilizes and rebounds. At the same time, the meeting did not mention "coordinating the expansion of domestic demand and deepening the structural reform of the supply side", but directly mentioned the expansion of domestic demand, which is also a manifestation of facing the problem more directly and attaching importance to the demand side. Second, as far as finance and money are concerned, this meeting mentioned "implementing a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy", and the modifier "more" was added in front of the active fiscal policy. A similar expression was found in the Politburo meeting in April 2020, "The active fiscal policy should be more active and promising", and then in May, the two sessions formulated a large-scale fiscal combination boxing (deficit ratio 3.6%+, 3.75 trillion new special debts and 1 trillion special national debts). The third is to stabilize the property market and write the stock market into the 2025 goal. The fourth is to pay attention to consumption. The meeting mentioned "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency and expanding domestic demand in all directions". It is expected that the policy of promoting consumption will make a breakthrough in scale and direction. Fifth, the meeting also mentioned science and technology (to lead the development of new quality productive forces with scientific and technological innovation and build a modern industrial system), green (to jointly promote carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green growth, and accelerate the overall green transformation of economic and social development) and foreign trade. Emphasizing science and technology, it is clear that the direction of future policy is in the industrial direction led by science and technology. At the same time, for green, because next year is the last year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, emission reduction and other targets need to be completed. In terms of foreign trade and foreign investment, the meeting mentioned that "it is necessary to expand high-level opening to the outside world and stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment".CITIC Jiantou interprets the Politburo meeting in December: it opens up the market's expectation of monetary easing space in 2025. CITIC Jiantou Research Report pointed out that there are six obvious expressions of the positive signal of the Politburo meeting in December: 1. "Implementing a more active and promising macro policy"; 2. "Stabilize the property market and stock market"; 3. "Strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment"; 4. "We should vigorously boost consumption"; 5. "More active fiscal policy"; 6. "moderately loose monetary policy". The most concerned is the last expression, "moderately loose monetary policy". For most of the time, the Politburo used the word "steady" to describe the currency. This time, it adopted the rare "moderate easing", which opened the market's expectation for the monetary easing space in 2025. The "liquidity trap" recently discussed in the market does not apply to China, and monetary easing can solve a considerable part of the problem of weak domestic demand. From the perspective of trend, observing the future domestic demand trend of China, what needs to be tracked most is the currency. From the short-term emotional point of view, "stabilizing the property market and stock market" will become a short-term market trading point.

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